Uhuru's Foreign Affairs Master Stroke

Leadership is the art of getting someone else to do something you want done because he wants to do it - Dwight D. Eisenhower 

For those who are ardent followers of the attache's desk you will remember I spoke about the importance of President Kenyatta's nominee for the position of Foreign Affairs cabinet secretary my previous post on 'The Iron Law Burns Hot in Kenya'. The position is extremely crucial because Kenya's foreign policy is at a cross roads. Not only because of the infamous ICC cases that haunt our foreign relations  but also because of the evolving nature of the international system.

Much has been said about the ICC cases so I will not delve into this. MY position has remained clear that I do not believe that the ICC cases will have a major negative impact on Kenya's foreign relations.

As to the evolving nature of the international system, this is one to watch since it will have major repercussions for foreign relations for Kenya and globally. The world is slowly moving from a UNI-polar world to a MULTI-polar one. It is becoming increasing regionalised and the great powers of the last century are losing some of that luster. New powers are emerging and the regional agenda is becoming more prominent. 

The thing to understand about states is that they are constantly seeking to increase their sphere of influence. The emerging thought on how to go about it is a move towards regionalisation. Negotiate as a bloc and you negotiate from a stronger position than going at it alone. Control the bloc, and you control your negotiating position. We see it now with the E.U (for Europe), A.U (for Africa) and ASEAN (for Asia).

The appointment of Ambassador Amina Mohammed is therefore a master stroke from President Kenyatta. She brings on board the globally accepted diplomatic currency of CLOUT! and she has it by the bucket loads! As a career diplomat, lawyer, and Kenya's highest ranked U.N official (assistant Secretary General and deputy executive director, UNEP) she brings some credibility and international muscle to Kenya's foreign ministry.....and just in time to hit the refresh button on our foreign policy and how we conduct it.

Kenya is extremely well positioned internationally and It's about time we took advantage of that fact. Our democracy, economics, politics and culture are emerging, not to mention the geo-political significance of the country and perhaps a substantial mineral wealth. 

However, the country needs a fit foreign ministry to cash in on this and I hope a technocrat with an understanding of the international system will deliver. I also hope those UN best practices will also rub off on the ministry.

The outlook from the attache's desk is 'cautiously optimistic'. We have a professional at the helm. I hope she is up to the task of upgrading a system that might prefer the status quo.

How to send anything to the future.

'People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly timey-wimey... stuff' - Doctor Who

(P.S - Apologies for the tenses in this post. Tenses are rather difficult for a time traveler.)

 'Time is an Illusion' said Albert Einstein.

The knowledge that time is an illusion has made this whole business of sending gifts to my future self really easy and convenient. Before my discovery, I had to be content with gifts from other people...which sometimes never even came. I could only trust myself to get me the gift I wanted, and to have it delivered 'on time'.

This is the story of how I discovered that time is an illusion and that I could, in fact, send things forward in time to myself. 

A few years ago, I lost my driving license and I had to apply for a new one. This is a great start to the story...right. It's funny how mundane activities lead to great discoveries. In my country, the new driver's license is sent to your local post-office for collection. A few days later, by a stroke of good policing, my previously lost license was found and  I was called to pick it up at the local police station. With the receipt of my old license, I continued on with normal life, completely forgetting about the new license I had applied for.

Fast forward to two years later and my previously lost but found license is now old and in tatters but I am too lazy to get a new one. I was paying a visit to my local post office and you will never guess what I found waiting for me.....you guessed it.....a gift from the past...from me. I received a brand new but old, exact copy, of my tattered license! I had inadvertently sent a gift to my future self. And it arrived 'just in time' for me to dodge a trip to government offices....which are always necessary to avoid.

Now...I know what you are thinking. You think that this can be blamed on my forgetfulness....or my failure to visit the post office more often...but I beg to differ. If you understand that time is an illusion and that the only moment that exists is 'the now' you will then understand that it is possible and actually quite easy to send items forward through time. The proof is the new but old license in my possession.

I realized that the actions and thoughts of my 'now' are directly influencing the 'now' of my futureself. I am now very careful to only send good things to my futureself.

 The plot thickens. Having realized the ability to send things forward in time..I embarked or am embarking on a project to send items back in time. This is especially relevant to me because I need my future rich self to send me back some cash for rent. I have already sent a letter forward in time indicating as much. He knows.

My project has been moderately successful. I am not yet able to receive physical items from the future (like the said rent money) but I have had success with receiving electronic information from the future where I am quite wealthy.

You want proof? The proof is that the Attache's desk only exists in my future and yet you are reading it in what you perceive as you present.

How To Be A Great Political Analyst.....Like Me.

'It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.' - Aristotle

Life is about perspectives. Doubly so for politics. The ability to analyze from different perspectives is key to the making of a great political analyst. You must be able to look at issues from all the angles, including the ones that you do not necessarily agree with.I put it to you, dear reader, that this is the secret to great analysis.

This is especially significant in today's tech savvy world where everyone and anyone can voice their opinion and claim to be giving an analysis. Analysis by its nature implies looking at multiple perspectives, comparing, contrasting and finding a meeting point or, hopefully, a way forward. This contrasts heavily with social media commentary which is seen to be, many times, extremely one sided. Unfortunately this trend is also seeping into mainstream media which has a significant influence on the populace.

This issue of perspectives also cultivates objectivity. A great analyst should give an objective view of the topic of analysis, otherwise they are simply giving their opinion....and in analysis, opinion doesn't count for much. It is not the duty of the analyst to make the decision for the reader. In order to be a great analyst, one must examine the different perspectives objectively...and perhaps give recommendations, which must also be examined objectively.

It has been said that, 'Distance not only gives nostalgia, but perspective, and maybe objectivity.' Nothing truer has been said in regards to moulding a great analyst. And here, I refer to 'emotional distance'. Emotive analysis, is no analysis. It falls closer to personal opinion. Emotions mixed in analysis clouds the mind of the analyst, who is then unable to objectively analyze the different perspectives.

To fly an attache's desk, political analysis....proper political analysis is a must have skill and the key is the ability to argue both sides and to go as far as being the 'Devil's advocate'

 

Justice Vs Peace: The ICC question in Kenya

With the election of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto into office and with witnesses pulling out, or threatening to do so, in the Uhuru and Ruto case at the ICC, serious questions on the conflict between Peace and Justice are raised. Ideally, peace and justice are supposed to be mutually reinforcing goals, BUT unfortunately we do not live in an ideal world. The ICC is therefore faced with an interesting dilema of justice versus peace. This dilema is unfolding at two levels.

At the first level, the ICC is meant to uphold justice for the Kenyan people....and therefore peace (theoretically). This is to be achieved by prosecuting Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto on crimes against humanity. Unfortunately for the ICC, the Kenyan people have elected in the two in an election that was widely considered to be free and fair. The question therefore arises as to whether justice can be truly pursued and achieved where the victim of said injustice stands with the accused. Is that justice? The pursuit of justice is also meant to uphold peace. Does the ICC's pursuit of the Kenyan cases against democratically elected leaders  promote peace or does it contribute to the instability that may be caused by a president and deputy-president facing charges at the ICC?

At the second level, is the issue of the sudden withdrawal of witnesses coinciding with the rise to power of the Uhuru and Ruto duo. The ICC stands at the top of a slippery slope and this writer hopes that justice isn't that blind. Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. (taken from Ian Fleming's novel Goldfinger one of the greates all time Bond movies) The trend suggests that for one to slip through  the gaps of an ICC case, it is as easy as (or as difficult as) getting into power, or for that matter, staying in power. This should be a matter of gravest concern to the ICC whose main mandate is the prosecution of those who hold the highest level of culpability. The court must continually send strong signals indicating that power is not an impenetrable shroud against justice.

When examining the law, one must analyze the letter of the Law as well as the spirit of the Law. In this case, the spirit of the Law governing the ICC was meant to bring justice and promote peace. Therefore in determining the course to be taken by the court, the maintenance of peace must be a significant consideration of the court and not just a blind following of the letter of the law. However, this may come at the cost of the pursuit of justice. Must justice be sacrificed at the alter peace? Is peace a form of justice?

The view behind the attache's desk suggests that Ms. Bensouda and her crack team of lawyers, as well as the ICC judges, have huge issues to address, over and above the prosecution and adjudication of a case against suspects. Perhaps a baptism of fire is what the ICC needs in order to establish what type of court it is going to be for the rest of humanity. Perhaps the baptism of fire will simply leave a corpsy shell. As always, I follow this issue closely from behind this attache's desk.

The Iron Law burns hot in Kenya

The Iron law of international politics: legal obligations must yield to national interest, and that no state is immune from this.

The flood of congratulatory messages that were received by President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta shocked many, BUT not this writer.

 After the March 9th declaration of Mr. Kenyatta as victor of the presidential election, there was only what can be described as a trickle (at best!) of messages from the international community. Many interpreted this as the now infamous ' Carson's consequences'. Johnnie Carson, who leads the Department of State’s Bureau of African Affairs alluded to the fact that electing ICC suspects, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto would have consequences on Kenya's diplomacy and standing in the International community. The statement was made pursuant to an obligation to shun ICC suspects.

However, the 'Iron Law' has struck firm and hard in the Kenyan situation.The ruling at the Supreme court in Nairobi declaring the elections as having been free and fair led to an opening of the floodgates of congratulatory messages from International Community which are traditionally considered to be forms of 'recognition' of the new government. International politics and the pursuit of National interests always take precedence, even over a legal obligation. The proof is in the pudding. Legal obligations and even moral stands are sometimes contrary to National interests and in this cases the 'Iron Law' provides that these must take a back seat. Due to Kenya's strategic and Geo-political role in the region, many countries that were reluctant to deal with the Uhuru and Ruto duo have their hands tied. In order to achieve some parts of their National interests, relations with Kenya have to maintained.

Some have argued that the Kenya's diplomatic relations may be limited to only 'essential' contact. I believe this notion to be a faulty. Kenya's foreign relations will not be limited by the ICC question. As always, in international relations, the only limit is the achievement of National interests. This means that the diplomatic status quo remains. Any country that can progress its national interests by dealing with Kenya will continue to do so. Any country that has continually invested in Kenya will continue to do so.

This 'Iron Law' however does not give Uhuru Kenyatta a free pass. His government will have to put in some extra effort in their Foreign Ministry. This Ministry is the face of Kenya globally and in order to mend any fences and give the necessary assurances to the international community, the Ministry will have to work just a bit harder. This is why the selection of the Foreign Minister will be key. Uhuru must be careful to choose one who he can rely on to consolidate Kenya's international standing. The appointee must be one whose integrity and standing are unquestioned internationally.

As we draw closer to the inauguration and subsequent appointment of cabinet secretaries, this writer will continue follow these events closely from the attache's desk.