Thursday, April 4, 2013

The Iron Law burns hot in Kenya

The Iron law of international politics: legal obligations must yield to national interest, and that no state is immune from this.



The flood of congratulatory messages that were received by President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta shocked many, BUT not this writer.

 After the March 9th declaration of Mr. Kenyatta as victor of the presidential election, there was only what can be described as a trickle (at best!) of messages from the international community. Many interpreted this as the now infamous ' Carson's consequences'. Johnnie Carson, who leads the Department of State’s Bureau of African Affairs alluded to the fact that electing ICC suspects, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto would have consequences on Kenya's diplomacy and standing in the International community. The statement was made pursuant to an obligation to shun ICC suspects.

However, the 'Iron Law' has struck firm and hard in the Kenyan situation.The ruling at the Supreme court in Nairobi declaring the elections as having been free and fair led to an opening of the floodgates of congratulatory messages from International Community which are traditionally considered to be forms of 'recognition' of the new government. International politics and the pursuit of National interests always take precedence, even over a legal obligation. The proof is in the pudding. Legal obligations and even moral stands are sometimes contrary to National interests and in this cases the 'Iron Law' provides that these must take a back seat. Due to Kenya's strategic and Geo-political role in the region, many countries that were reluctant to deal with the Uhuru and Ruto duo have their hands tied. In order to achieve some parts of their National interests, relations with Kenya have to maintained.

Some have argued that the Kenya's diplomatic relations may be limited to only 'essential' contact. I believe this notion to be a faulty. Kenya's foreign relations will not be limited by the ICC question. As always, in international relations, the only limit is the achievement of National interests. This means that the diplomatic status quo remains. Any country that can progress its national interests by dealing with Kenya will continue to do so. Any country that has continually invested in Kenya will continue to do so.

This 'Iron Law' however does not give Uhuru Kenyatta a free pass. His government will have to put in some extra effort in their Foreign Ministry. This Ministry is the face of Kenya globally and in order to mend any fences and give the necessary assurances to the international community, the Ministry will have to work just a bit harder. This is why the selection of the Foreign Minister will be key. Uhuru must be careful to choose one who he can rely on to consolidate Kenya's international standing. The appointee must be one whose integrity and standing are unquestioned internationally.

As we draw closer to the inauguration and subsequent appointment of cabinet secretaries, this writer will continue follow these events closely from the attache's desk.

10 comments:

  1. Interesting. In some ways, I cannot wait to see what unfolds, especially with the international community. Thanks for the blog!

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  2. Thanks. Kenya is blooming diplomatically....these are therefore interesting times.

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  3. Good read. Can't wait to see how things turn out, hopefully better than what has been anticipated by most.

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  4. @ivy...it is always interesting to see the effects of a small but loud minority on a society.

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  5. I really do hope he can get a Foreign Minister of unquestionable integrity....hmmmmh.....Let's wait and see! Thought provoking piece!

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  6. It will be key for Uhuru to pay special attention to the Foreign Ministry in his considerations. It has to be some one who the international community will respond positively to.

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  7. This is an interesting piece. Especially this line " Due to Kenya's strategic and Geo-political role in the region, many countries that were reluctant to deal with the Uhuru and Ruto duo have their hands tied."

    Please, lets not imagine FOR A SECOND that this country is indispensable in the larger scheme of things. Iran wasn't back when old Bush was in power and look what happened years later...a dustbin!! This country, as great as we may want to believe it is, is a speck in the ocean of international influence. NONE of the superpowers(if they still use this term) has their hands tied. What we are witnessing is the RESPECT & ACKNOWLEDGMENT of the Kenyan people's choice but NOT acceptance of the status quo. It is much unlike a woman willingly spreading her legs for her husband in the evening! Nay, far from it. The international community is indeed left scratching their heads, curious on how to treat this very peculiar situation. None, willing to be too friendly and none willing to be too distant. It will be interesting to witness how this unfolds over the next 24 months.

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  8. Did you mean Iraq or Iran? Iran remains a significant power in the middle-east, though the current sanctions might take a toll on Tehran.
    I concur that the Kenya is not indispensable in the large scheme of things but I also believe that the transgressions of Kenya are not significant to warrant a diplomatic freeze or a military intervention by world powers. You are right, It will be interesting to see what happens going forward.....though I would be shocked to find that nothing happens and it's business as usual. After all, the International system abhors instability and unpredictability. More of the same please.

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  9. My reference was to IRAN... in its START-STOP fragile relations with the United States... once a close ally, then an enemy of the white house etc etc...
    And it is not that the transgressions of our country are not significant enough to warrant a diplomatic freeze, it is that this is a PECULIAR situation for any government anywhere... to sever links with the most promising east african state, or keep warm ties alive, or to go full on and make love to the president UK... a tough convoluted choice indeed. i'd be curious to read what local and international media house analysts will cook up...

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  10. I do agree with the writer to some degree...as Kibe argues none of these countries have their hands tied...Even if th worst case scenario were to happen kenya will suffer,i mean more powerful economies like Iran have been brought down,but ofcourse no one plays to the worst hand scenario.The person who has his hands tied is suspect UK..how do u balance tribalism that they represent vs. intl community in choosing a uniter and a collaborator?

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