Kenya's Democratic Monarchies

"The surface of American Society is covered with a layer of democratic paint, but from time to time, one can see the old aristocratic colours breaking through" ~ Alexis de Tocquevile

The Kethi Kilonzo issue has raised many questions among Kenyans. Is she eligible to run for the senate seat left vacant after her father's untimely demise? Is she a registered voter? How did she get a voter's registration slip that is claimed to have been stolen from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC)? If she loses the ongoing petition at the High Court, will she still be allowed to continue in her legal practice? Was Kethi compelled by mysterious political forces to run for a position that she never wanted?

So many questions....and the Attache's desk would like to add one more to the fold. One more perspective that is always in the minds of Kenya but goes seemingly unaddressed. The question....why was it Kethi Kilonzo, the daughter of the Late senator, who was automatically nominated to succeed her father in the Senate. Why not someone else from the countless eligible politicians in Makueni County. Why a green-horn with little experience in politics? I put it to you that Kenya's form of democracy can be referred as a "Democratic Monarchy". The reason that it was Kethi Kilonzo, and no one else, is that Kethi Kilonzo is the Late Senator's daughter. 

A Democratic Monarchy may be described as a system of politics where the principles and processes of democracy are applied to enforce an underlying aristocratic system. This means that once an elective position is vacated by reason of death or any other reason, the person who takes over that position is likely to be a close relative of the previous holder. This is very much similar to a monarchy where the King or Queen is succeeded by the crown prince or princess or brother or sister or other close relative.Further, the electioneering process that follows, such as voting, is simply a confirmation of that the crown prince is now the new King. 

The Kethi Kilonzo case is not unique in the Kenyan experience. Strangely, or not, the two front runners in the 2013 presidential elections can be considered to be the crown princes of Kenya. Uhuru Kenayatta is the son of Kenya's first president, Mzee Jommo Kenyatta while the former Prime Minister is the son of the Late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga who was the first Vice president. The legendary political battles of their fathers was repeated again almost 50 years later.

We also have Musalia Mudavadi (former vice-president and presidential candidate), son to the late Moses Mudavadi. Eugene Wamalwa is another who succeeded his late brother Kijana Wamalwa. The Democratic Monarchy also extends to wives. The late Kijana Wamalwa's wife served as a diplomat for several years. After the death of Kipkalia Kones, his wife 'inherited' his position, of course after some elections were held. The Moi family also has Gideon and Jonathan Moi in elective positions. These are the sons of retired President Moi. The list is actually quite extensive,and is continuing into a new generation of politicians. For example, the son of former Minister Henry Kosgey is in an elective position. It is interesting to note that these types of aristocracies also exist world-wide. For example, the Kennedy and Bush families can be considered as American royalty.

This is not a critique of this system of democracy. It is simply and attempt to highlight its existence. This system of politics where elective positions are inherited within certain political dynaties may arise due to a number of reasons. Perhaps subsequent generations in political families have pre-existing advantages and political machineries at their disposal. It could be that the children want to emulate their fathers and go in the family business. This system could also be a remnant from the pre-colonial era of tribal chiefs. Perhaps we are fond of legacies because they remind us of the familiar. 

Whatever the cause, this is definitely a reality of Kenyan politics.Good or bad. It is not a far cry to imagine that President Uhuru Kenyatta's son may one day be the president himself. None of these elected leaders are forced on us. We love to lift them high. They are our Kings and Queens. Perhaps the days of the monarchies of the world are not gone. Perhaps aristocracies simply disguised themselves in a form that we are willing to accept. Perhaps they simply allowed us an opportunity to feel as though we were participating in choosing our governors through the ballot. 

The King is dead. Long live the King

The Arab Winter Addendum: This Is Not A Coup.

'What's in a name? that which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet' ~ Juliet.
Romeo & Juliet, Shakespeare 

The Arab Winter came sooner than anticipated.The military in Egypt removed President Morsi via decree and placed him under house arrest....but this is NOT a coup....or is it?

The Morsi government, that was less than a year old, was accused of, among other issues, of the politicization of Islam through the Muslim brotherhood. However, it is important to understand that due to the suppression of political movements in the Mubarak era, religious movements were the only outlet available for societal organization. It was therefore inevitable that these religious movements were the most organized groups and were in a position to be politically dominant in a post-Mubarak era. Despite the opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood and its governance systems, they were indeed a democratically elected government and the removal of such a Government by a military decree is a cause for concern.

The issue of coup or no coup is on the lips of every political analyst out there. Some argue that the ouster of the Morsi government by the military was not coup because it was the result of popular protests. That the military was only acting to defend the democratic rights of the people and therefore this was not a power-grab. Others argue that a coup by any other name, is still a coup. This school of thought suggests that no matter the backdrop of  coup, the removal of an elected official remains a coup and therefore what is happening in Egypt is indeed a coup.

Coup or not, the actions of the military have offered an insight into the inner power structures of the Egyptian government. The core function of military around the world is to secure the nation from external threats. The military does not have a mandate to interfere in domestic politics in the name of securing the the democratic rights of the citizens. As was stated before in 'The Arab Winter', a dangerous precedent is being set in Egypt. This precedent is now extended further to the intervention of the military in domestic politics. It's also critical to remember that there were also pro-Morsi protesters in Egypt. It's interesting to ponder the criteria that the military used to choose one group's democratic rights over the other group. It's also interesting to note the amount of 'power' or 'sway' that the Egyptian military holds, even in the shadows. Enough to remove a president by decree.

Looking ahead, one cannot help but consider when the next protests in Tahrir square will arise. The ‘Revolution-Reloaded’ has yielded the fall of Morsi and the rise of military rule. Or should that be the return of military rule? Perhaps it never left. What kind of obstacles would the next round of protesters face? The ouster of Morsi’s civilian government has cost lives in their tens. How many lives does Egypt stand to lose in a would-be attempt to remove a military government? And when can the world expect an end to this cycle of governments and protesters?

The Arab Winter

'Winter is Coming' ~ Lord Eddard Stark - Game of Thrones

Spring is elation. The growth of new things. But spring ends...and the long winter is never too far away. And for Egypt, Winter is Coming. 

The Arab Spring brought hope for democracy in North-Africa and the Middle-East after a long period of autocratic rule. However, the initial joy of spring is giving way to the harsh realities of winter. In Egypt specifically, the people have returned to the square they made famous after the topple of Hossni Mubarak. This time, they want President Morsi out.

Of concern to this desk is the seeming erosion of one of democracy's guiding principles that dictate that governments should be legitimately replaced through the ballot. The view from the Attache's desk is disconcerting because a dangerous precedent is being set in Egypt. The pattern that is developing is that if the citizenry is dissatisfied with the policies of a government, the best solution is to go to the streets. What's worrying is that it actually seems to work. The question is where, if at, will this cycle of installation and removal of governments end?  

The concern is that just as there was a 'domino effect' in the Arab spring, where one governments fall was followed by another, we might see a similar domino effect in the Arab Winter. This is whereby, the people's of the Arab spring who are dissatisfied with the quality and pace of the outcomes of the revolution return to the streets and oust the governments that they put in place.

Democracy is a slow and arduous process that is often times punctuated with alternating seasons of calm and violence. America and France, which are considered as some of the foremost democracies in the world have also suffered periods of democratic winter. America suffered the civil war after gaining its independence while France suffered the Reign of Terror, in which 20,000-40,000 people were executed for 'counterrevolutionary' activities. 

The question that therefore arises is whether the current actions of the people of Egypt are simply a speed-bump on the road to democracy, or a dangerous precedent that should be of concern to the world. Another pertinent question that needs to be addressed is whether the people in Tahrir square are a true representation of the entirety of the Egyptian population? and therefore are their calls for Morsi to step down legitimate?

As always, the Attache remains at his desk, watching and contemplating the seasons of democracy. Winter is coming......but is it here to stay?

Death of the Nation-State

"In the age of globalisation, pooled sovereignty means more power, not less." 
~ Jose Manuel Barroso 

Interconnectedness is the sign of our times. Globalization theorists were the optimistic  about the full effects of this interconnectedness and some scholars from this school of thought even contemplated the notion of the demise of the Nation-State as we know it.

The world is now more connected than it has ever been in modern history, economies, trade, security and cultural issues have surpassed the traditional notion of statehood. Globalisation theorists posit that this move toward globalisation would lead to an evolution of the human society away from the Sovereign states. However, the State still remains the locus of governance despite the major advances that have been made in how human society interacts.

One may argue that despite the rise of globalisation, the state has managed to hold on to a significant role in international affairs. The state still makes decisions on behalf of its people at the global arena. Though some states go as far as to suppress the voice of its people at the international level. 

The state also holds sway against globalisation because of the question of identity. The citizen’s identity is closely related to their nationality and with that comes a 'loyalty to the state' that may be difficult to leave behind. This makes it difficult to encourage integration with other parts of the world.

On the other hand, despite the Sovereign state’s supremacy in governance, it is indeed dying a slow death. The modern state serves, more and more, an administrative role in modern society as opposed to a substantive role. The argument is that in the face of globalisation, the modern state has become a servant or a facilitator of its people's global activities. This argument suggests that there is a role for the state to play but it is increasingly limited by our ability to connect without the help of the state.

This has led to an increasingly multi-lateral world. There is a realisation in the international system that it is difficult for a state to survive while it is isolated form other states. However, global governance is still a dream that is far from achievement. The world is not yet ready to let go of the sovereign state in terms of governance. However, there is a slow but steady shift and this is in the form of regionalisation. Regionalisation represents the compromise that states are willing to make towards globalisation. Regional organisations such as the European Union and the African Union demonstrate that it is possible to work together and collaborate. However, these collaborations are only with our neighbours and those with whom we share similar interests and culture.

The view from the attache's desk is that the nation-state does have a role to play in governance for the foreseeable future. However, this role is being slowly eroded by globalisation and the first step of moving toward global governance could be regional governance. Perhaps the globalisation theorists will be proved right in the end. Perhaps it was only the period of time needed for globalisation to take root that they got wrong in their predictions. 

Why Bulls fight.....and the grass that is injured

"In bull-fighting they speak of the terrain of the bull and the terrain of the bull-fighter. As long as the bull-fighter stays in his own terrain he is completely safe. Each time he enters into the terrain of the bull he is in great danger. Belmonte, in his best days, worked always in the terrain of the bull. This way, he gave the sensation of coming tragedy." ~ Chapter 18, The Sun Also Rises, Ernest Hemingway

"In international relations, we all work in the terrain of the Bull" ~ The Attache

In the recent past, Russia and China have vetoed resolutions in relation to the conflict in Syria at the United Nations Security Council.

In the wake of the Arab spring, the conflict in Syria has continued to escalate. Attempts have been made, most recently by the British Government, to punish the Government of Syria by imposing economic sanctions. The Security Council has the mandate of tackling issues of global peace and security. Therefore, any such sanctions against Syria would have to be passed by the Security Council. However, in order for any resolution to be passed, the Permanent Five members of the Security Council must vote unanimously in favour of the resolution. 

In our current discussion Russia and China, who are part of the P5, have vetoed resolutions for sanctions in Syria. This means that the UN may not impose sanctions on the Syrian Government. The sanctions are meant to coerce the Syrian government to end the conflict.

There has been wide ranging academic discourse on the veto power and its use since its inception in the late 40’s. The P5 consists essentially of the victors of the Second World War. Scholars have argued that due to ideological differences, such as Socialism and Capitalism, Russia and China have traditionally been at odds in voting at the Security Council with America, France and Britain. This is an argument from a more Structuralist school of thought that talks about the development of two streams of society. This may be ‘the Core’ and ‘the Periphery’ or ‘Socialists and Capitalists’. These differences in ideology may explain why Russia and China may vote together against the other members of the P5.

On the other hand, a realist theory perspective may explain the actions of Russia and China in voting against the proposed sanctions. Scholars from this school of thought have very state-centric perspectives and they argue that national interests are of the utmost importance in the decision making of a state. 

This argument would lead us to the conclusion that there are certain national interests that Russia and China have in Syria and perhaps in the region that need to be protected. The Governments in Russia and China choose to safe guard interests by voting against any resolutions on Syria that may harm their National interests. These interests may be economic, military, a need to have a foothold in the middle-east, among others.

 The perspective from this desk is that it is relevant important to ascertain the motives of the fighting bulls and that perhaps it may lead to the development of solutions to the conflict in Syria.....and perhaps saving the grass a lot of damage.

Uhuru's Foreign Affairs Master Stroke

Leadership is the art of getting someone else to do something you want done because he wants to do it - Dwight D. Eisenhower 

For those who are ardent followers of the attache's desk you will remember I spoke about the importance of President Kenyatta's nominee for the position of Foreign Affairs cabinet secretary my previous post on 'The Iron Law Burns Hot in Kenya'. The position is extremely crucial because Kenya's foreign policy is at a cross roads. Not only because of the infamous ICC cases that haunt our foreign relations  but also because of the evolving nature of the international system.

Much has been said about the ICC cases so I will not delve into this. MY position has remained clear that I do not believe that the ICC cases will have a major negative impact on Kenya's foreign relations.

As to the evolving nature of the international system, this is one to watch since it will have major repercussions for foreign relations for Kenya and globally. The world is slowly moving from a UNI-polar world to a MULTI-polar one. It is becoming increasing regionalised and the great powers of the last century are losing some of that luster. New powers are emerging and the regional agenda is becoming more prominent. 

The thing to understand about states is that they are constantly seeking to increase their sphere of influence. The emerging thought on how to go about it is a move towards regionalisation. Negotiate as a bloc and you negotiate from a stronger position than going at it alone. Control the bloc, and you control your negotiating position. We see it now with the E.U (for Europe), A.U (for Africa) and ASEAN (for Asia).

The appointment of Ambassador Amina Mohammed is therefore a master stroke from President Kenyatta. She brings on board the globally accepted diplomatic currency of CLOUT! and she has it by the bucket loads! As a career diplomat, lawyer, and Kenya's highest ranked U.N official (assistant Secretary General and deputy executive director, UNEP) she brings some credibility and international muscle to Kenya's foreign ministry.....and just in time to hit the refresh button on our foreign policy and how we conduct it.

Kenya is extremely well positioned internationally and It's about time we took advantage of that fact. Our democracy, economics, politics and culture are emerging, not to mention the geo-political significance of the country and perhaps a substantial mineral wealth. 

However, the country needs a fit foreign ministry to cash in on this and I hope a technocrat with an understanding of the international system will deliver. I also hope those UN best practices will also rub off on the ministry.

The outlook from the attache's desk is 'cautiously optimistic'. We have a professional at the helm. I hope she is up to the task of upgrading a system that might prefer the status quo.

How to send anything to the future.

'People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly timey-wimey... stuff' - Doctor Who

(P.S - Apologies for the tenses in this post. Tenses are rather difficult for a time traveler.)

 'Time is an Illusion' said Albert Einstein.

The knowledge that time is an illusion has made this whole business of sending gifts to my future self really easy and convenient. Before my discovery, I had to be content with gifts from other people...which sometimes never even came. I could only trust myself to get me the gift I wanted, and to have it delivered 'on time'.

This is the story of how I discovered that time is an illusion and that I could, in fact, send things forward in time to myself. 

A few years ago, I lost my driving license and I had to apply for a new one. This is a great start to the story...right. It's funny how mundane activities lead to great discoveries. In my country, the new driver's license is sent to your local post-office for collection. A few days later, by a stroke of good policing, my previously lost license was found and  I was called to pick it up at the local police station. With the receipt of my old license, I continued on with normal life, completely forgetting about the new license I had applied for.

Fast forward to two years later and my previously lost but found license is now old and in tatters but I am too lazy to get a new one. I was paying a visit to my local post office and you will never guess what I found waiting for me.....you guessed it.....a gift from the past...from me. I received a brand new but old, exact copy, of my tattered license! I had inadvertently sent a gift to my future self. And it arrived 'just in time' for me to dodge a trip to government offices....which are always necessary to avoid.

Now...I know what you are thinking. You think that this can be blamed on my forgetfulness....or my failure to visit the post office more often...but I beg to differ. If you understand that time is an illusion and that the only moment that exists is 'the now' you will then understand that it is possible and actually quite easy to send items forward through time. The proof is the new but old license in my possession.

I realized that the actions and thoughts of my 'now' are directly influencing the 'now' of my futureself. I am now very careful to only send good things to my futureself.

 The plot thickens. Having realized the ability to send things forward in time..I embarked or am embarking on a project to send items back in time. This is especially relevant to me because I need my future rich self to send me back some cash for rent. I have already sent a letter forward in time indicating as much. He knows.

My project has been moderately successful. I am not yet able to receive physical items from the future (like the said rent money) but I have had success with receiving electronic information from the future where I am quite wealthy.

You want proof? The proof is that the Attache's desk only exists in my future and yet you are reading it in what you perceive as you present.

How To Be A Great Political Analyst.....Like Me.

'It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.' - Aristotle

Life is about perspectives. Doubly so for politics. The ability to analyze from different perspectives is key to the making of a great political analyst. You must be able to look at issues from all the angles, including the ones that you do not necessarily agree with.I put it to you, dear reader, that this is the secret to great analysis.

This is especially significant in today's tech savvy world where everyone and anyone can voice their opinion and claim to be giving an analysis. Analysis by its nature implies looking at multiple perspectives, comparing, contrasting and finding a meeting point or, hopefully, a way forward. This contrasts heavily with social media commentary which is seen to be, many times, extremely one sided. Unfortunately this trend is also seeping into mainstream media which has a significant influence on the populace.

This issue of perspectives also cultivates objectivity. A great analyst should give an objective view of the topic of analysis, otherwise they are simply giving their opinion....and in analysis, opinion doesn't count for much. It is not the duty of the analyst to make the decision for the reader. In order to be a great analyst, one must examine the different perspectives objectively...and perhaps give recommendations, which must also be examined objectively.

It has been said that, 'Distance not only gives nostalgia, but perspective, and maybe objectivity.' Nothing truer has been said in regards to moulding a great analyst. And here, I refer to 'emotional distance'. Emotive analysis, is no analysis. It falls closer to personal opinion. Emotions mixed in analysis clouds the mind of the analyst, who is then unable to objectively analyze the different perspectives.

To fly an attache's desk, political analysis....proper political analysis is a must have skill and the key is the ability to argue both sides and to go as far as being the 'Devil's advocate'

 

Justice Vs Peace: The ICC question in Kenya

With the election of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto into office and with witnesses pulling out, or threatening to do so, in the Uhuru and Ruto case at the ICC, serious questions on the conflict between Peace and Justice are raised. Ideally, peace and justice are supposed to be mutually reinforcing goals, BUT unfortunately we do not live in an ideal world. The ICC is therefore faced with an interesting dilema of justice versus peace. This dilema is unfolding at two levels.

At the first level, the ICC is meant to uphold justice for the Kenyan people....and therefore peace (theoretically). This is to be achieved by prosecuting Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto on crimes against humanity. Unfortunately for the ICC, the Kenyan people have elected in the two in an election that was widely considered to be free and fair. The question therefore arises as to whether justice can be truly pursued and achieved where the victim of said injustice stands with the accused. Is that justice? The pursuit of justice is also meant to uphold peace. Does the ICC's pursuit of the Kenyan cases against democratically elected leaders  promote peace or does it contribute to the instability that may be caused by a president and deputy-president facing charges at the ICC?

At the second level, is the issue of the sudden withdrawal of witnesses coinciding with the rise to power of the Uhuru and Ruto duo. The ICC stands at the top of a slippery slope and this writer hopes that justice isn't that blind. Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. (taken from Ian Fleming's novel Goldfinger one of the greates all time Bond movies) The trend suggests that for one to slip through  the gaps of an ICC case, it is as easy as (or as difficult as) getting into power, or for that matter, staying in power. This should be a matter of gravest concern to the ICC whose main mandate is the prosecution of those who hold the highest level of culpability. The court must continually send strong signals indicating that power is not an impenetrable shroud against justice.

When examining the law, one must analyze the letter of the Law as well as the spirit of the Law. In this case, the spirit of the Law governing the ICC was meant to bring justice and promote peace. Therefore in determining the course to be taken by the court, the maintenance of peace must be a significant consideration of the court and not just a blind following of the letter of the law. However, this may come at the cost of the pursuit of justice. Must justice be sacrificed at the alter peace? Is peace a form of justice?

The view behind the attache's desk suggests that Ms. Bensouda and her crack team of lawyers, as well as the ICC judges, have huge issues to address, over and above the prosecution and adjudication of a case against suspects. Perhaps a baptism of fire is what the ICC needs in order to establish what type of court it is going to be for the rest of humanity. Perhaps the baptism of fire will simply leave a corpsy shell. As always, I follow this issue closely from behind this attache's desk.

The Iron Law burns hot in Kenya

The Iron law of international politics: legal obligations must yield to national interest, and that no state is immune from this.

The flood of congratulatory messages that were received by President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta shocked many, BUT not this writer.

 After the March 9th declaration of Mr. Kenyatta as victor of the presidential election, there was only what can be described as a trickle (at best!) of messages from the international community. Many interpreted this as the now infamous ' Carson's consequences'. Johnnie Carson, who leads the Department of State’s Bureau of African Affairs alluded to the fact that electing ICC suspects, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto would have consequences on Kenya's diplomacy and standing in the International community. The statement was made pursuant to an obligation to shun ICC suspects.

However, the 'Iron Law' has struck firm and hard in the Kenyan situation.The ruling at the Supreme court in Nairobi declaring the elections as having been free and fair led to an opening of the floodgates of congratulatory messages from International Community which are traditionally considered to be forms of 'recognition' of the new government. International politics and the pursuit of National interests always take precedence, even over a legal obligation. The proof is in the pudding. Legal obligations and even moral stands are sometimes contrary to National interests and in this cases the 'Iron Law' provides that these must take a back seat. Due to Kenya's strategic and Geo-political role in the region, many countries that were reluctant to deal with the Uhuru and Ruto duo have their hands tied. In order to achieve some parts of their National interests, relations with Kenya have to maintained.

Some have argued that the Kenya's diplomatic relations may be limited to only 'essential' contact. I believe this notion to be a faulty. Kenya's foreign relations will not be limited by the ICC question. As always, in international relations, the only limit is the achievement of National interests. This means that the diplomatic status quo remains. Any country that can progress its national interests by dealing with Kenya will continue to do so. Any country that has continually invested in Kenya will continue to do so.

This 'Iron Law' however does not give Uhuru Kenyatta a free pass. His government will have to put in some extra effort in their Foreign Ministry. This Ministry is the face of Kenya globally and in order to mend any fences and give the necessary assurances to the international community, the Ministry will have to work just a bit harder. This is why the selection of the Foreign Minister will be key. Uhuru must be careful to choose one who he can rely on to consolidate Kenya's international standing. The appointee must be one whose integrity and standing are unquestioned internationally.

As we draw closer to the inauguration and subsequent appointment of cabinet secretaries, this writer will continue follow these events closely from the attache's desk.